Staff Writer
Zimbabwe is likely to experience below-normal rainfall during the 2026/27 agricultural season, with the Meteorological Services Department (MSD) warning of increased dry conditions across much of the country.
According to the MSD’s seasonal rainfall outlook for October 2026 to March 2027, the forecast is being influenced by major global and regional climate drivers, including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
“ENSO is currently in its warm (El Niño) phase and is projected to persist until the end of January 2027, before transitioning to neutral in February 2027,” the MSD said.
The department said the IOD was also positive and expected to remain significant during the October to December 2026 period, with the combined influence of the two climate systems increasing the likelihood of below-normal rainfall.
“Collectively, these phenomena increase the likelihood of below-normal rainfall across Zimbabwe,” the MSD said.
For the October to December 2026 period, the department forecasts a high probability of below-normal rainfall across the country.
However, conditions are expected to vary during the second half of the season, with the southern and western parts of Zimbabwe likely to receive below-normal rainfall totals between January and March 2027.
“The rest of the country is likely to experience normal rainfall, although with a bias toward below-normal conditions,” the MSD said.
The department, however, cautioned that the seasonal outlook does not rule out extreme weather events, with violent storms and flash floods remaining a significant risk despite the anticipated drier conditions.
“Despite the elevated chances of a drier season, the risk of violent storms and flash floods remains significant,” the MSD said.
The weather agency stressed that the seasonal forecast is based on large-scale climate drivers, while the actual distribution of rainfall will depend on local and short-term weather systems.
“The outlook is based on global climate drivers. Actual rainfall distribution will ultimately depend on the response of local and short-term weather systems to these large-scale drivers,” the MSD said.
The forecast is expected to have implications for agriculture, water supplies and disaster preparedness, particularly in areas that may experience prolonged dry spells.
The MSD urged stakeholders to take proactive measures, including water harvesting, irrigation planning and drainage maintenance, while strengthening public health preparedness.
“Proactive measures including water harvesting, irrigation planning, drainage maintenance and public health preparedness are strongly advised,” the department said.
The MSD said it would continue monitoring global and regional climate signals throughout the forecast period and provide regular updates to support short-term decision-making by farmers, communities, government departments and other stakeholders.
The public was also encouraged to follow the department’s short-term weather forecasts and regular updates, as rainfall patterns can change in response to evolving climate and weather systems.