By Dr. Abigale Mupambi, Global Affairs Analyst
Dear Africans,
Ethiopia is now at a crossroads. There are fresh threats by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a regional political powerhouse from northern Ethiopia, to disband the Pretoria Peace Accord and the ripple effects this would have on the Horn and the AU.
Four years after the signing of the Pretoria Peace Agreement in November 2022, Ethiopia stands once again on a knife-edge. The agreement that ended the devastating 2-year war in Tigray is now facing its most serious threat yet: signals from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) that it may withdraw from the accord.
This is not just an Ethiopian crisis. Because of Ethiopia’s geography, demography, and role as AU host, the possible collapse of Pretoria has direct consequences for Eritrea, Sudan, Djibouti, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan , and for the African Union’s credibility as a continental peace broker.
‘Why the Accord Is Under Threat Now
The Pretoria deal was meant to restore Tigray’s political representation and security. In practice, 3 developments have eroded trust:
1. Political Exclusion
In May 2025, Ethiopia’s National Election Board revoked the TPLF’s registration. The TPLF remains the dominant political force in Tigray. Its delisting removed the primary vehicle through which Tigrayans participate in federal politics at the exact moment the agreement promised reintegration. For TPLF leaders, this signals that the federal government is reneging on power-sharing commitments.
2. Territorial and Security Disputes
Key provisions on the withdrawal of “non-ENDF forces” and the status of contested areas in Western Tigray remain unresolved. Tigrayan leaders argue that Amhara and Eritrean forces still operate in disputed zones, while Addis Ababa points to ongoing insecurity in Amhara and Oromia as justification for delayed implementation.
3. Legitimacy Deficit from the June 2026 Elections
Federal elections went ahead on June 1, 2026, but with no voting in Tigray and with 143 polling stations closed in Amhara and Oromia due to conflict. Opposition parties called the process a “luxury” under current insecurity. From Tigray’s perspective, being excluded from the national vote while being asked to abide by a federal government is untenable.
The cumulative message from Mekelle is clear: if the accord does not deliver inclusion and security, the TPLF will consider it void.
‘ Regional Stakes: Why Ethiopia’s Neighbors Should Be Alarmed
Ethiopia is landlocked and borders 6 states. A breakdown in Pretoria will not stay inside Ethiopia’s borders.
– Eritrea : Already a party to the war, Asmara views Tigrayan instability as a direct security threat. A collapse could reignite cross-border hostilities and derail the fragile Ethiopia-Eritrea rapprochement of 2018.
– Sudan : Sharing a 750km border and in dispute over Al-Fashaga and GERD, Khartoum cannot afford another refugee influx or a militarized western Ethiopia. Sudan’s own transition remains fragile.
– Djibouti : Over 90% of Ethiopia’s trade passes through Djibouti port. Any renewed conflict in northern Ethiopia disrupts supply chains and raises insurance and logistics costs for the entire Horn.
– Kenya & South Sudan : Both face spillover risks through arms flows, pastoral conflict, and refugee movements. They also depend on Ethiopia for IGAD-led mediation in their own regions.
– Somalia: Already battling Al-Shabaab, Addis Ababa’s distraction would weaken the AU/ATMIS security architecture in the Horn.
In short: Ethiopia’s stability is the keystone for Horn of Africa trade, security, and diplomacy.
The African Union Test
The AU brokered Pretoria and hosts its headquarters in Addis Ababa. A collapse would be a reputational blow.
The AU now faces 3 urgent tasks:
1. Re-activate Monitoring : The accord’s monitoring mechanism has been weak. The AU must deploy a high-level panel with enforcement teeth, not just observation.
2. Mediate Inclusion: The delisting of TPLF must be addressed politically. Peace cannot hold if the main signatory is barred from elections.
3. Regionalize the Response : The AU, working with IGAD, must bring Eritrea, Sudan, and Djibouti into confidence-building talks. This is a regional peace, not just a domestic one.
If the AU fails to salvage Pretoria, it risks sending the message that African-led peace deals are not implementable — a dangerous precedent as the continent faces conflicts in Sudan, DRC, and the Sahel.
4. The Path Forward: Lessons for Sustainable Peace
Comparative politics is clear. Peace agreements fail not on the battlefield, but when they lack inclusion, security, and credible institutions.
For Ethiopia and its partners, this means:
1. Restore Political Space: Urgently address TPLF participation through legal and political channels. Exclusion breeds spoilers.
2. Complete Security Arrangements: Finalize disarmament and the status of contested territories with AU verification.
3. Decouple Elections from Conflict : Do not hold national votes in areas where the state cannot guarantee equal participation.
In Summation,
The threat by the TPLF to disband the Pretoria Accord is a warning light for the entire region. Ethiopia is too central to the Horn and to the AU to afford another war.
For Ethiopia’s neighbors, the message is to invest in preventive diplomacy now, not wait for refugees later.
For the AU, the message is that mediation must be followed by implementation.
Pretoria can still be saved. But only if all parties choose inclusion over exclusion, and institutions over force. The cost of failure will be paid not just in Tigray, but across the Horn.
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Dr. Abigale Mupambi is a Harare-based Global Affairs Analyst specializing in peace processes, constitutional governance, and international Relations.