There is an 88% to 94% chance that an El Niño event will develop during Zimbabwe’s 2026/27 rainy season, the Meteorological Services Department (MSD) has warned.
In a recent statement, the MSD said updates from global climate forecasting centres pointed to a high probability of El Niño conditions.
Historically, El Niño brings a 65% chance of below-normal rainfall in Zimbabwe, raising the risk of drier-than-average weather.
But the department said that it is still too early to be certain. Forecasts made this far out face a “spring predictability barrier”, meaning ocean and atmospheric conditions could shift significantly before the season starts.
Because of that uncertainty, the MSD has not yet released an official seasonal forecast. It urged the public, farmers and businesses not to make major agricultural or financial decisions based on preliminary models alone.
A definitive national outlook will be released in August 2026 after the Southern African Development Community’s Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF). That report will use more up-to-date data for seasonal planning.
In the meantime, the MSD is calling for calm and asking the public to avoid panic. It recommends that farmers continue with normal preparations while starting to adopt climate-resilient practices, including water conservation and the use of drought-tolerant seed varieties.
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